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WTO Revises Global Trade Growth Forecast for 2026 to 0.5% and Projects CY25 Recovery.

Economy Business | Dated: 13 Oct 2025

In October 2025, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) released its latest report titled “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update: October 2025.” The report revised global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5% for the calendar year (CY) 2026, down from its earlier estimate of 1.8%, while projecting a modest recovery in CY 2025.

🎯 Key Highlights:

  • - The WTO revised its trade forecast for CY25 upward from 0.9% (August 2025) to 2.4%, driven mainly by strong import demand in the United States and growth in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related goods. However, for CY26, the forecast was lowered to 0.5% due to slowing global demand.
  • - The report stated that global merchandise trade growth will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025, and further to 0.5% in 2026. It also noted that trade volumes rose significantly in the first half of CY25, showing a 4.9% year-on-year (YoY) increase.
  • - WTO identified several growth factors including favourable macroeconomic conditions, disinflation, and supportive fiscal policies. Additionally, emerging markets and AI-related goods such as semiconductors and telecom equipment played a key role in boosting trade during early 2025.

💡 Other Important Facts:

  • (i) According to WTO’s report, the global GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in CY25 and 2.6% in CY26, marking a marginal deceleration of 10 basis points. The moderation reflects slower growth in developed economies amid tightening financial conditions.
  • (ii) The WTO projected global services export growth to slow from 6.8% in CY24 to 4.6% in CY25, and further to 4.4% in CY26. Despite moderation, the services sector continues to be supported by digital trade and cross-border IT services.
  • (iii) The report highlighted that Asia and Africa are set to record the strongest export growth in 2025, while Europe and North America may face weaker imports in 2026. In the first half of 2025, most WTO regions witnessed positive YoY export growth, with Asia leading at 10.4%.

📚 Test Your Knowledge:

Which organisation has recently released the ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update: October 2025’ report?

Correct Answer: WTO

🚀 Quick Recap:

About World Trade Organization

  • Director-General: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
  • Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland